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Policy changes that alleviate the needs of precautionary saving raise the borrowing cost and thus reduce investment, output, and asset prices.Such policy changes have distributional consequences. BY KEVIN HUANG, ZHENG LIU, AND TAO ZHA Abstract When rational expectations are replaced by adaptive expectations, we prove that the self-confirming equilibrium is the same as the steady state rational expectations equilibrium, but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria.

Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics.We estimate the quantity-based monetary policy system in China.We argue that China's rising shadow banking was inextricably linked to banks' \emph risk and hampered the effectiveness of monetary policy on the banking system during the 2009-2015 period of monetary policy contractions.When applicable, we document our construction methods in comparison to other existing approaches. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China.Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle.

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